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■ EASTERN FRONT · DRONE & GROUND WAR
Ukraine · Russia
Both capitals are striking what the other one needs: Ukraine takes the refineries, Russia takes the crowds. The ground line has stopped answering either.
AS OF TUE AUG 25
Ukraine gains where Russia refines, not where it digs in: Afipsky burned a fifth time overnight and Novoshakhtinsk stopped processing (Kyiv Post).
2
Killed by falling debris
Two hurt at Afipsky · Gov. Kondratyev, Aug 25
5th
Strike on Afipsky in 2026
Prior hits Jan, Mar, Jun, Jul · Kyiv Post
70+
Strikes on Russian industry
Since Jan 1 · Kyiv Post, Aug 25
~4m
Russian refining runs, b/d
Off a 3.6m low, weakest since 2002 · Kyiv Post
- Afipsky burns a fifth time. Overnight drones hit the 7.2m-tonne-a-year Krasnodar refinery; Gov. Veniamin Kondratyev says falling debris killed two people and injured two more (Kyiv Post · Moscow Times).
- Rostov joins the outage list. Novoshakhtinsky suspended processing after the same wave — two refineries down in one night, in two federal subjects (Moscow Times).
- The campaign has a scale now. More than 70 Ukrainian strikes on Russian industrial sites since January. Refining touched 3.6m barrels a day, the weakest since May 2002, before recovering near 4m (Kyiv Post).
- Kyiv’s gains are small and real. ISW logged Ukrainian advances Monday at Sloviansk, at Hulyaipole and in western Zaporizhia Oblast — the first multi-axis entry in its favour in weeks (ISW).
- Moscow reaches for private assets. ISW reads Putin as setting conditions for wide nationalisation, while Moscow hands relief measures to the firms absorbing the strike damage (ISW).
- Europe pays part of the bill. The EU approved $7bn in defence loans on Independence Day; Norway put up 85 billion kroner for 2027 (Kyiv Independent · Al Jazeera).
- The interceptor ask moves to Washington. British and European leaders plan to press Trump next month for Patriot access, after Zelensky asked for 300 rounds before winter against 264 due all year (Kyiv Independent · Al Jazeera).
🌍 THEATRE MAPUKRAINE FRONT