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■ COMPUTING & PHYSICS · Q-DAY & LAB RACE
Quantum Tracker
Q-Day clock, the lab scoreboard, the physics wire, the network race.
Quantum Computing & Physics Monitor
The race to make the universe compute for us · Qubits, Q-Day, and the end of encryption as we know it
UPDATED: Aug 25, 2026
1,121
PHYSICAL QUBITS
IBM Condor (best)
94
LOGICAL QUBITS
Quantinuum (Mar 2026)
13,000x
QUANTUM ADVANTAGE
Google Willow
<4 yr
Q-DAY ESTIMATE
RSA-2048 at risk
$40B+
GLOBAL QC SPEND
2026 (gov + private, incl CHIPS $2B)
The Qubit Race
WHO’S BUILDING WHAT · THE HARDWARE SCOREBOARD NOBODY ASKED FOR BUT EVERYONE NEEDS
| PLAYER | CHIP / SYSTEM | QUBITS | APPROACH | STATUS | WHAT IT MEANS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USGoogle | Willow | 105 | Superconducting | ADVANTAGE PROVEN | First “below threshold” error correction — the latest data shows logical errors falling ~2.14× per step up in code size, the scaling theorists predicted. Completed in minutes what would take classical supercomputers billions of years. The benchmark is absurd but the physics is real. |
| USIBM | Nighthawk (120q) / Condor (1,121q) | 1,121 | Superconducting | ADVANTAGE BY EOY | Committed $10B+ over five years on Jun 2 toward fault-tolerant machines by 2029; says partners demonstrate advantage in 2026. IBM has never met a roadmap it couldn’t revise, but $10B is a serious way to hold yourself to one. |
| USMicrosoft | Majorana 2 (Jun 2) | 8 (topo) | Topological | PROTOTYPE | Majorana 2 unveiled Jun 2 — second-generation topological chip, still drawing both industry interest and demands for independent evidence. Magne (50 logical qubits) due early 2027. Microsoft is betting that everyone else is building qubits wrong. |
| USQuantinuum | H2 | 98 (physical) → 94 detected / 48 corrected | Trapped ion | BREAK-EVEN | Mar 2026: 48 error-corrected qubits from 98 physical qubits. Error correction now improves accuracy instead of hurting it. Filed for a Nasdaq IPO (QNT) May 11 on $30.9M of 2025 revenue; tied up with Synopsys May 20 to put quantum solvers into chip-design simulation. |
| CNUSTC / Origin | Jiuzhang 3 / Zuchongzhi 3 | 255 (photonic) / 105 (SC) | Photonic + SC | DUAL ADVANTAGE | China is the only country with quantum advantage on two separate hardware platforms. The papers are real. The implications for the encryption timeline are not comforting. |
| EUIQM / Pasqal | Various | ~100 | SC + Neutral atom | SCALING | Europe’s quantum flagship: €1B+ invested. Finland, France, Germany leading. Playing catch-up but with actual industrial applications in mind rather than just bragging rights. |
The Q-Day Clock
WHEN QUANTUM BREAKS ENCRYPTION · THE TIMELINE KEEPS SHRINKING
~2030
ESTIMATED Q-DAY — WHEN RSA-2048 FALLS
Down from ~2040 estimate two years ago · Three papers in three months rewrote the math
RESOURCE ESTIMATES TO BREAK RSA-2048
2023 ESTIMATE20M physical qubits
2025 (GIDNEY)<1M physical qubits
2026 (ICEBERG/LDPC)<100K physical qubits
The number of qubits needed to crack modern encryption has dropped by an order of magnitude since May 2025. NIST says RSA-2048 is safe through 2030. NIST also deprecated it after 2030. Both of those sentences are load-bearing.
HARVEST NOW, DECRYPT LATER: State actors are already collecting encrypted traffic with plans to crack it once quantum catches up. If your data needs to stay secret past 2030, it is at risk today. NSA’s CNSA 2.0 mandates quantum-safe encryption for all national security systems by Jan 2027. Google’s internal deadline: 2029.
The Physics Wire
BREAKTHROUGHS · WEIRDNESS · THINGS THAT SHOULDN’T WORK BUT DO
- SCIENCE The laser links get to orbit first. IonQ says its Skyloom optical communications terminals now number 84 on-orbit after a recent launch — the photonic plumbing for quantum networking is scaling faster than the processors it is meant to connect. (Daily Quantum Update, Aug 24.)
- MONEY Three governments set the same clock. Stockholm gave its national quantum strategy a 2036 deadline, EuroHPC opened six funding calls, and Beijing wrote quantum into its 2030 cyber-industry plan — state budgets converging on one bet in a single week. (Daily Quantum Update, Aug 24.)
- MONEY The sector reprices itself on nothing. Infleqtion rose 10%, Rigetti 9% and IonQ 7% in one session with no company announcement behind any of them — a reminder that the quantum trade still moves on sentiment well ahead of revenue. (24/7 Wall St., Aug 21.)
- SCIENCE Entanglement without the fibre. Brookhaven and Stony Brook sent entangled photons 13 miles through open air, in daylight and at night, at the infrared wavelengths quantum processors already use — a way around the loss budget of buried cable. (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Aug 21.)
- SCIENCE IBM wires up its cryostat. IBM says it linked modular cryogenic cells for ‘Starling,’ the fault-tolerant machine it wants running by 2029, and still targets more than 1,000 programmable qubits by 2027 — the packaging problem, not the physics, is the gating step now. (Quantum Computing Report, Aug 19.)
- MONEY Hangzhou raises on neutral atoms. MatriQ closed a Series A+ in the hundreds of millions of renminbi on the strength of delivered 1,000-plus-qubit neutral-atom systems — an atom-array bet funded entirely outside the American capital stack. (Daily Quantum Update, Aug 21.)
- SCIENCE Qubits on a magnetic cushion. Florida State researchers designed magnetically levitated qubits, lifting the computing element off the surface whose vibration decoheres it — a mechanical answer to a quantum problem. (Daily Quantum Update, Aug 21.)
- MONEY Pasqal’s listing clears the desk. SEC clearance set an Aug 25 shareholder vote on the French neutral-atom firm’s Nasdaq debut, and a $3B EigenQ SPAC filed its Form S-4 toward a Q4 close — the paperwork wave that turns lab names into tickers. (Quantum Computing Report, Aug 18–19.)
The Quantum Internet Race
SECURE COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE · WHO CAN TALK WITHOUT BEING HEARD
🇨🇳
🇪🇺
🇺🇸
A quantum internet doesn’t make the regular internet faster. It makes eavesdropping physically impossible. That’s a different kind of valuable.
Four Fingers note: Quantum computing coverage tends toward two poles: breathless hype (“it will change everything!”) and dismissive skepticism (“it’s always ten years away”). The reality in 2026 is more specific and more interesting than either. Error correction just crossed break-even. The encryption timeline just lurched forward. China has a functioning quantum network longer than the US interstate highway system. Now the lead labs are filing IPOs and governments are placing build orders. These are engineering milestones, not press releases. Whether you care because of the science, the security implications, or the $40B+ being spent, the receipts are here. We’re tracking them.